Goldman Sachs Warns of Commodity Overproduction Risk in 2026 Outlook
Goldman Sachs Research has published its annual Commodity Outlook 2026: Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves, forecasting moderate growth in global commodity prices amid structural shifts in energy and technology sectors. The report warns of oversupply risks in key segments while identifying strategic opportunities for investors. Under the baseline macroeconomic scenario of steady global GDP growth and Federal Reserve policy easing, commodity markets will face divergent outcomes across asset classes.
Two Megatrends Shaping 2026
Power Race: Demand for Strategic Metals
U.S.-China competition in artificial intelligence (AI) and geopolitical influence is driving demand for strategic metals. Central banks are expected to maintain aggressive gold purchases, with Goldman Sachs projecting 70 tons/month in 2026—a fourfold increase from pre-2022 averages. Gold is forecasted to reach $4,900 per ounce by year-end, driven by its "irreplaceable" status and low speculative positions (exchange-traded funds account for just 0.17% of U.S. retail investors' portfolios). Copper, Goldman Sachs' "industrial favorite," is expected to stabilize at $11,400 per ton despite a 450,000-ton decline in global inventories outside the U.S. Long-term demand drivers include AI infrastructure, data centers, and power grids, with 60% of projected demand growth by 2030 equivalent to an additional U.S. economy. China's potential strategic stockpiling could support prices.
Supply Waves: Energy Sector Overproduction
Energy markets face significant oversupply risks. Brent crude is forecasted to average $56 per barrel in 2026, down 15% from current levels, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected at $52. The surge in global oil supply, peaking in 2025–2026, will pressure prices despite slowing growth. OECD inventories are projected to continue rising, compressing forward spreads. Battery metals like lithium and nickel face downward pressure from Chinese overproduction, with lithium prices expected to fall 25% to $9,100 per ton. Aluminum and iron ore prices may drop 19% and 15%, respectively.
Implications for Kazakhstan and ETSE
As a major producer of oil, uranium, and copper, Kazakhstan faces mixed signals from the report. Oil markets are bearish due to OPEC+ quotas and oversupply, while copper and uranium could benefit from strong demand for nuclear energy and green technologies. ETS-e traders may leverage volatility through oil hedging via forward contracts, copper speculation, and strategic positioning in precious metals.
Key Goldman Sachs Projections for 2026
| Commodity | Forecast Price | Change from Spot |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,900/ounce | +25% |
| Copper | $11,400/ton | Stabilization |
| Brent Crude | $56/barrel | -15% |
| Lithium | $9,100/ton | -25% |