Kazakhstan's Agri-Sector Surpasses Oil as Export Anchor in 2025

Kazakhstan's agricultural sector has overtaken oil and gas as the country's main export driver for the first time in 2025, according to a report by the Association of Financial Analysts of Kazakhstan. This development marks a significant shift in the nation's economic structure, reducing reliance on oil revenues despite a decline in the overall trade surplus.

Formally, Kazakhstan's total trade volume grew by 1.3% to $143.9 billion in 2025. However, exports fell by 3.2% to $79 billion, while imports rose by 7.4% to $64.8 billion. This resulted in a trade surplus decline from $21.3 billion to $14.2 billion—a 30% drop. The mineral sector, particularly oil, accounted for a $3.3 billion decline in export revenue, driven by a 20% drop in Brent crude prices. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector (Agricultural Processing Complex) expanded exports by $2 billion, with physical export volumes increasing by nearly 39%. This growth included grains, oilseeds, animal feed, and medicinal plants.

The non-resource sector's share in total exports rose from 35.2% to 36.4%, reflecting the structural shift. While part of this change is due to oil's decline, it demonstrates that agricultural products have become a critical buffer against commodity price volatility. Unlike oil—which is highly cyclical and price-sensitive—agricultural goods offer stable global demand, potentially making Kazakhstan's economy more resilient to energy market fluctuations.

However, challenges persist. Imports surged by $4.4 billion, driven by vehicles, food, and chemical products. While car imports lowered average vehicle prices from 7.2 million to 6.2 million tenge, prices for items like chocolate and household appliances rose. This imbalance reduced the net export contribution to GDP to 4.6% from 7.3% a year earlier, increasing domestic economic reliance on internal demand and investments.

Government projections indicate further challenges: 2026 exports may fall to $77.1 billion while imports rise to $67.7 billion, reducing the trade surplus to $9.4 billion. Such trends could pressure Kazakhstan's currency market and strain National Bank reserves during adverse market conditions.

This milestone highlights both progress and caution. While the agri-sector's rise offers a path to diversification, sustained export growth must outpace oil's decline to reduce the country's energy dependency. The transition is underway, but its pace will determine whether Kazakhstan achieves lasting economic resilience.

Source: Zakon.kz