Kazakhstan's GDP Growth in 2026 to be Driven by Automotive, Metallurgy, and Trade Sectors

The Kazakh government anticipates key economic growth drivers in 2026 to be the manufacturing industry, construction, transportation and warehousing, trade, and the production of food and beverages. These projections were discussed at a meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, focusing on socio-economic development forecasts and GDP growth parameters.

Focus on the Real Sector

Manufacturing, construction, transportation, trade, and food/beverage production are expected to contribute the most to GDP growth in 2026. Manufacturing is projected to grow by 6.2% in 2026, up from an expected 6% in 2025, aligning with the goals of the National Development Plan of Kazakhstan until 2029.

Metallurgy: New Plants Reaching Capacity

A 3% increase in metallurgical production is planned for 2026, supported by the full operational capacity of plants launched in 2024-2025, including Kyzyl Aray Copper, EkibastuzFerroAlloyse, KazferroLimited, and Shagala Mining. Growth is expected in the production of ferroalloys, steel, rolled products, and pig iron in ferrous metallurgy, and gold, copper, aluminum, and zinc in non-ferrous metallurgy.

Automotive and Engineering: Double-Digit Growth

The engineering sector is forecast to experience the highest growth rate at 13.4%. The automotive industry will be a significant contributor, with plans to increase passenger car production by 17% due to the new facilities of Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan and KIA Qazaqstan. Agricultural machinery production is also expected to rise by 5%.

Household Appliances: 50% Production Increase

Kazakhstan is projected to produce 436,500 units of household appliances in 2025, a 50% increase compared to 2024. Further growth is anticipated in 2026, with production expected to be 50% higher than in 2025. The manufacturers include Silk Road Electronics, Almaty Tұrmystyk Teknika Zaudy, and DS Multimedia CA, producing items like televisions, washing machines, and stoves.

Chemical Industry: 7% Growth

The chemical industry is expected to grow by 7% in 2026, driven by the commissioning of new facilities for the production of sulfuric acid, sodium cyanide, hydrogen peroxide, and liquid glass.

Trade: Approaching 92.4 Trillion Tenge

The turnover in trade is forecast to reach 80.3 trillion Tenge in 2025, a 14.6% increase year-on-year. The target for 2026 is 92.4 trillion Tenge, representing a 106.5% increase. This growth will be supported by stable oil production, goods processing programs, and the launch of four large B2B platforms for wholesale export trade, including a focus on China.

Agriculture: Food and Beverage Production

The agricultural sector anticipates high growth in the production of food and beverages, with projected increases of 9% and 9.3% respectively in 2026.

Following the meeting, Serik Zhumangarin instructed government agencies to prepare roadmaps for the development of these industries in the first quarter of 2026. Priorities include fulfilling industrial growth plans, implementing key investment and infrastructure projects, and identifying additional reserves for sustainable economic growth.

Sources: Kursiv Media