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Kazakhstan Cuts Oil Supplies to OECD Europe but Remains Among Top Suppliers

Kazakhstan Cuts Oil Supplies to OECD Europe but Remains Among Top Suppliers

Kazakhstan increased crude oil production by 36 kb/d in November, reaching 1.75 mb/d, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report by OPEC. Despite the rebound, output remains 116 kb/d below September levels. Still, Kazakhstan posted the second-fastest month-on-month production increase, after Saudi Arabia.

OECD Europe: Lower Flows, Stable Position

OPEC data show that in August Kazakhstan reduced crude supplies to OECD Europe by about 100 kb/d, to 1.2 mb/d. Even so, the country retained its place among the region’s top three suppliers, alongside the United States (around 1.4 mb/d) and Libya (around 1.0 mb/d), underscoring the resilience of Kazakhstan’s export footprint amid shifting trade flows.

Prices and Market Sentiment

Oil prices softened modestly in November amid bearish speculative positioning:

  • OPEC Reference Basket (ORB): $64.46/bbl (–$0.74 m/m)

  • ICE Brent (front month): $63.66/bbl (–$0.29)

  • NYMEX WTI (front month): $59.48/bbl (–$0.59)

Backwardation structures for Brent and Oman were broadly unchanged, indicating supportive near-term physical market fundamentals, helped by relatively low OECD inventories.

Demand and Supply Outlook

Global oil demand growth forecasts remain at 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026, driven mainly by non-OECD economies.
Non-OPEC+ liquids supply is projected to grow by 1.0 mb/d in 2025, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. OPEC+ crude output rose to 43.06 mb/d in November.

Stocks and Refining

OECD commercial inventories fell by 32 million barrels in October, with product stocks declining more than crude stocks increased. Refining margins improved across all regions in November, while global refinery throughput rose by about 1.3 mb/d to 81.5 mb/d.

Macroeconomic Backdrop

OPEC slightly raised its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, keeping the 2026 outlook unchanged. India’s growth outlook was revised upward, China’s remained steady, while Russia’s forecasts were trimmed modestly.

Source: OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report.