Kazakhstan's Trade Resilience in 2025: Uzbekistan Steps Up as Oil Prices Fall
Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover demonstrated remarkable resilience in the first 11 months of 2025, holding steady despite a substantial decline in global hydrocarbon prices, according to reports from Zakon.kz.
Prices Down, Turnover Holds
The Kazakh economy faced a major challenge in 2025 with a prolonged slump in oil prices. Economist Tulegen Askarov reported that the average price of Brent crude fell to $63.07 per barrel in November, down from $76.76 at the beginning of the year – a total decrease of 21.7%.
However, against pessimistic expectations, the country’s foreign trade turnover reached $128,802.6 million between January and November 2025. This represents a marginal decrease of only 0.1% compared to the same period in 2024.
This performance indicates growth in non-hydrocarbon trade, effectively offsetting the impact of lower oil revenues.
Uzbekistan Emerges as Key Export Destination
A significant development in 2025 was the rise of Uzbekistan as a crucial export partner. Uzbekistan entered the top five main trading partners for Kazakhstan’s exports for the first time, accounting for 4.5% of the total. This highlights the increasing integration within Central Asia and the diversification of export markets.
Total exports amounted to $71,135.7 million, a nominal decrease of 4.2%. The export structure remains diversified, with the following key components:
- Oil and petroleum products – 51.3%
- Refined copper – 5.1%
- Radioactive elements and isotopes – 5%
- Copper ores and concentrates – 3.6%
- Ferroalloys – 2.6%
The primary destinations for Kazakh exports are Italy (20.1%), China (19%), and Russia (10%). The Netherlands (7.7%) and Turkey (5%) also feature prominently.
Import Growth Driven by High-Tech Goods
While exports were pressured by falling prices, imports to Kazakhstan increased by 5.5%, reaching $57,666.9 million. The growth in imports was largely driven by high-tech goods and production assets:
- Passenger cars – 4.2%
- Pharmaceuticals – 2.7%
- Vehicle bodies – 2.4%
- Telephone sets – 2.3%
Russia (29.6%) and China (29.1%) remain the main suppliers of goods to Kazakhstan, followed by Germany, the United States, and South Korea.
EAEU Trade Experiences Slight Decline
Regional cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) experienced a slight cooling in 2025. Trade turnover with EAEU countries decreased by 2.4%, totaling $27,266.1 million.
The distribution of trade within the EAEU is as follows:
- Russian Federation – 88.7%
- Kyrgyz Republic – 7.2%
- Republic of Belarus – 3.8%
- Republic of Armenia – 0.2%
Exports to EAEU countries fell by 11%, resulting in a negative trade balance of $9.5 billion. A similar, albeit less pronounced, trend was observed in trade with CIS countries (a total decrease of 0.6%).
Looking Ahead
Maintaining overall trade turnover despite falling oil prices is a significant achievement for Kazakhstan’s economic policy. The 7.7% increase in imports from distant foreign countries and the preservation of export positions allowed the country to maintain a positive overall trade balance of $13.4 billion, although this balance has decreased by a third compared to the previous year, as noted by Tulegen Askarov.
In conclusion, 2025 demonstrated Kazakhstan’s ability to trade effectively even with lower oil prices. However, continued resilience will depend on increasing the depth of processing of exported raw materials and expanding ties with new partners, such as Uzbekistan.