Kazakhstan's Wheat Exports Forecast at 12.5 Million Tonnes for 2025/26 MY
ASTANA, Kazakhstan – Kazakhstan's wheat exports are projected to reach 12.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY), according to recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and analysis by the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.
Evgeny Karabanov, an official representative of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, reported that USDA analysts estimate the 2025 wheat harvest in Kazakhstan at 18.9 million tonnes. This figure aligns with the gross wheat harvest (bunker weight) forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which estimates a yield of 20.3 million tonnes.
The initial export estimate for the 2025/26 MY was 9 million tonnes in December. This has now been revised upwards to 9.5 million tonnes. This figure does not include exports of feed flour.
“According to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, feed flour exports in the current MY are expected to be 3.1 million tonnes. Adding this 3 million tonnes (in grain equivalent) to the USDA estimate brings the total Kazakh wheat exports in grain equivalent for the current season to approximately 12.5 million tonnes,” Karabanov stated.
The report also highlights anticipated wheat import trends in key markets. Uzbekistan is forecast to import 4.3 million tonnes of wheat (+0.2 million tonnes year-on-year), while Afghanistan is expected to import 4.6 million tonnes (+0.3 million tonnes year-on-year). Karabanov noted that Kazakhstan is expected to supply at least 4 million tonnes of wheat to Uzbekistan and approximately 2 million tonnes to Afghanistan, including flour in grain equivalent.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan indicates that in the 2024/25 MY, wheat imports from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan totaled 4.36 million tonnes, and to Afghanistan 1.78 million tonnes.