OPEC+ Production Falls Short Amidst Robust Global Demand
Vienna, Austria – January 15, 2026 – The OPEC+ group is currently falling short of its collective oil production targets, with actual output 784,000 barrels per day (b/d) below agreed-upon quotas. This occurs as the global economy demonstrates strong and 'healthy' growth in oil consumption, anticipating a substantial increase in demand over the next two years, as reported by Zakon.kz.
According to an OPEC+ report, the alliance produced a total of 37.437 million b/d in December 2025, falling short of the 38.221 million b/d target. This shortfall is largely attributed to key producers exceeding their committed cuts.
Here's a breakdown of production against quotas in December:
- Russia: Underproduced by 270,000 b/d
- Saudi Arabia: Underproduced by 25,000 b/d
- Iraq: Underproduced by 34,000 b/d
- UAE: Underproduced by 19,000 b/d
- Sudan: Underproduced by 46,000 b/d
- Congo: Underproduced by 16,000 b/d
- Equatorial Guinea: Underproduced by 12,000 b/d
Conversely, a few nations exceeded their production targets:
- Kazakhstan: Overproduced by 84,000 b/d (produced 1.522 million b/d against a quota of 1.438 million b/d)
- Gabon: Overproduced by 50,000 b/d
- Oman: Overproduced by 4,000 b/d
Global Demand Outlook
OPEC forecasts a continued increase in global oil demand, reaching 106.52 million b/d in 2026 (a 1.4 million b/d increase from 2025 levels). Further growth is expected in 2027, with demand rising to 107.86 million b/d. The organization characterizes this growth as 'healthy,' noting that the majority of increased consumption will come from non-OECD countries.
Oil supply from non-OPEC+ nations is projected to grow at a slower pace:
- 2026: Expected increase of 0.6 million b/d (reaching 54.78 million b/d)
- 2027: Similar growth to 55.39 million b/d
The primary drivers of non-OPEC+ production will be the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, with Qatar joining in 2027.
Economic Factors and Refining Margins
The oil market is further supported by positive global economic forecasts. World GDP growth is expected to be 3.1% in 2026 and accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. India and China are projected to lead growth (6.6% and 4.5% respectively), while Russia's forecast has been slightly adjusted to 1.3% for the current year.
However, the refining sector is experiencing a contrasting trend. Refining margins decreased in December across key regions, with profitability falling in the Northern Hemisphere due to excess fuel inventories and remaining stable in Southeast Asia due to consistent supplies from the Middle East.
Notably, Kazakhstan experienced a temporary reduction in oil shipments through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal in December 2025 due to the suspension of operations at the VPU-3 outlet facility following a drone attack, as well as unfavorable weather conditions.