World Bank Predicts Global Commodity Prices to Hit 6-Year Low in 2026

The World Bank forecasts global commodity prices to reach a six-year low in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report. The global commodity price index is expected to drop by 7% annually in both 2025 and 2026 compared to the previous period, driven by slowing global economic growth (forecasted at 2.7% GDP growth for 2026), reduced demand from China for energy and industrial metals, and rising oil market surpluses due to high OECD inventories and slower production growth.

Key Drivers of Decline

• Global economic slowdown: Projected 2.7% GDP growth in 2026.
• Reduced Chinese demand: For energy and industrial metals.
• Oil market surplus: Caused by high OECD inventories and slower production.
• Geopolitical risks: U.S. tariffs under Trump, Middle East volatility, and currency fluctuations.

February 2026 Sector Breakdown

February data highlighted divergent trends:

• Energy: Index fell 0.5% overall. U.S. natural gas dropped 52.3% due to record production and mild weather. Australian coal rose 7.8% amid Asian demand recovery.
• Non-energy: Index fell 1.2% overall. Food prices rose 2.1% (grain shortages), beverages fell 15.6% (coffee surplus), fertilizers rose 6.5% (ammonia deficit), and metals declined 1.7% (precious metals up, base metals pressured).

The World Bank warns of risks: A recession could deepen the decline to -12%, while a "soft landing" scenario would limit the drop to 4%. The next update is scheduled for April 2, 2026.